Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58e358cd00982b0ac402b74440ce7925d05598e28e0af7c3685cb639a73e75c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x624d…a9a9backed Yes | 1c | 7,996$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,513$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 409.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 74c | 377.65$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 9c | 367.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 313.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 226.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 22c | 211.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 204.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 38c | 201.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 189.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 70c | 163.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 154.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 142.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…c8cebacked Yes | 30c | 129.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…7debbacked Yes | 27c | 103.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…9e1ebacked Yes | 22c | 103.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 37c | 100.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed No | 75c | 75.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0f…55aebacked Yes | 22c | 72.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 69c | 58.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 53.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…3ddebacked Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 43.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…bafbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 60c | 36.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 64c | 36.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Yes | 32c | 32.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 38c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…a996backed No | 68c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 63c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed No | 66c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 30°F or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.