Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813b54ed4403287c29ff21f2ce92f9a3a2a5a87324cb9dbff2bc7f8e22bdb962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,672$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,781$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 41c | 992.34$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.64 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 68c | 724.1$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.63 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 497.32$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 39c | 349.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 319.78$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…e55bbacked No | 61c | 311.15$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 307.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 66c | 289.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 249.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 75c | 205.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 203.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 202$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…c0e6backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 35c | 187.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 181.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 38c | 178.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 155.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 66c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 144.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 35c | 130.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed No | 65c | 125.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 30c | 124.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 34c | 124.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 26c | 116.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 33c | 114.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 114.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…1632backed Yes | 33c | 113.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 37c | 107.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 12c | 95.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…663dbacked Yes | 37c | 91.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…271bbacked Yes | 14c | 82.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…ddb8backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 72.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 67.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 64.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…5521backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…04ecbacked Yes | 31c | 47.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…dc4fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 40.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 33c | 40.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 34c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 56c | 35.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ea…bc04backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 37c | 34.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 59c | 34.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 47c | 26.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked No | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 57c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 57c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…9d08backed No | 58c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…2365backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.