IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88ebefa24eeb7783b28296e7e94171c0c62be56afcfaa6079d311ad9995372cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b00…1553backed Yes | 9c | 9,000$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,836$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…2630backed Yes | 5c | 3,315$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 8c | 2,911$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9e…0841backed Yes | 5c | 2,415$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,793$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 8c | 1,011$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…cc0ebacked Yes | 6c | 998$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cd…fab2backed Yes | 9c | 980$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…09f8backed Yes | 3c | 977.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 3c | 681.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…6e93backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 4c | 530$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 420.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 6c | 405$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 304.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 7c | 298.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 276$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 9c | 261.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…02c2backed Yes | 9c | 194.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE?this page
- Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?Yes won
- Will SpaceX list on the NYSE?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.