IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286de7625bdb877116ebfd9fcd8022a97a8dfd4998ee4bb5c4fac789a2d0d1a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…fca5backed No | 20c | 1,600$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 79c | 1,045$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 1,002$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 3c | 772.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 22c | 716.56$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 5c | 665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 18c | 572.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…9714backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 13c | 371.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed No | 5c | 367.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked No | 17c | 355.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 35c | 349.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5306…b824backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 299.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 9c | 299.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…1c9ebacked No | 20c | 296.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 80c | 197.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…8b73backed Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…2f66backed No | 18c | 111.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…ecb6backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 19c | 91.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 77c | 65.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…6f69backed No | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…9ab2backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…6e93backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…aa2cbacked No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked No | 23c | 44.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x119b…b744backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…774ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?this page
- Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE?No won
- Will SpaceX list on the NYSE?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.