Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77fa5217790ee3ceff04cc8e719c5af97616a122286ebdfcfcd232689adc4380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 4c | 2,872$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 2,062$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 11c | 1,815$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked No | 2c | 1,340$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 8c | 1,150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 6c | 1,062$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 6c | 992.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 6c | 949.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 711.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 705.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 689$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 610.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 602.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 595.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 595.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 592.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 6c | 556.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 8c | 460.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 5c | 394.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 8c | 369.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 6c | 335.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…04f6backed No | 7c | 325.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 12c | 308.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 6c | 305.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 5c | 300.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 9c | 300.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 10c | 292.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26d…d349backed No | 6c | 289.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 8c | 285$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 7c | 284.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 4c | 281.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 5c | 263.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 4c | 262.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 8c | 244.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 224.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 9c | 224.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 224.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 6c | 223.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 221.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 9c | 220.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 6c | 219.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 6c | 218.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 210.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 10c | 200.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 199.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 6c | 191.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 124.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7backed No | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 79c | 41.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Monty Fritts win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.