TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b28…d021backed No3c1,402$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes31c971.48$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.7283332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes34c962.8$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.6810751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No34c904.22$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.4624010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed No73c843.83$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No7c752.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7246824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes17c675.76$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.845446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes72c623.93$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.323129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes23c589.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.951338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes45c555.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30611436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes20c524.82$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3310726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes17c505.22$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.6518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72c0…d9ffbacked No4c498.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked No75c478.22$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.538036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No38c471.06$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.851435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes76c445.51$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.731323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes57c421.94$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4814719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes6c385.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed Yes73c336.41$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.117266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes35c300$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1520631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Yes27c297.48$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.795424.1%13 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c268.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.082,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes27c267.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.761040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes47c260.52$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0410542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No77c258.79$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4714251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…b44bbacked Yes34c247.89$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.891822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No15c226.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes54c221.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.96139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.151,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57dd…72cbbacked Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f7…b205backed No8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34d2…addebacked Yes21c199.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.242119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Yes11c195.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.228122.2%18 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No75c189.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No18c185.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5635232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf20…3189backed Yes18c181.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+183.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c175.66$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes31c175.05$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes28c168.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.798348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c11…1992backed Yes67c164.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes13c150$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.056538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes15c149.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.491,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes21c148.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes18c142.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c141.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.489262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes19c135$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.873435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes11c134.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.83228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes61c131.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes12c129.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2417644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdb4…712cbacked No74c121.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes33c119$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed Yes16c118$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+111%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ad…29b8backed Yes16c118$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+216.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes24c117.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.062759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x791a…ff06backed Yes17c116.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.241741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c108.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2815818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes63c108.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.621,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c105.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.761,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8336123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb18…526dbacked Yes19c91.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.26540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes19c89.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.441729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes30c83.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.154325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes46c81.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c8…c312backed Yes20c80.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.93633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes60c79.22$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.632737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked No73c77.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3515558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…21aabacked No22c76.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe110…52c2backed Yes57c76.43$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes29c75.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7511359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes30c75.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9613223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Yes70c74.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.71850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b71…9fcdbacked Yes17c72.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+41%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed Yes43c72.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.591540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6741…0be4backed Yes42c71.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Yes59c71.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes29c70.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.071553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+48.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6839…a6d2backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes74c69.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…1720backed Yes59c66.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.221650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No49c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.854,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes18c64.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.172,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c60.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.415046%23 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes34c58.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes53c58.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes27c57.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7527050.4%136 W · 134 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes21c57.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.116924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes27c56.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.413243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes58c55.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.151,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No74c53.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes72c53.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.773063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes27c51.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.78933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes33c50.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0713946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9c8…f330backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf0f…2458backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes32c49.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.835056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bfd…2690backed Yes48c46.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.