Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1545cf5c6364442ae13019b030e0db379de5cb332edac8acc546ca3f7d7c031a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 2,054$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,440$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…72cbbacked Yes | 65c | 977.16$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 43c | 847.45$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.97 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 32c | 730.6$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 53c | 699.89$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 536.1$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked No | 45c | 532.06$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 66c | 465.18$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 7c | 447.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 436.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed No | 39c | 407.37$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…addebacked Yes | 16c | 401.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 4c | 390$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 59c | 352.72$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 41c | 315.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed Yes | 15c | 306.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 54c | 300.19$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 45c | 298.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 18c | 296.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 34c | 281.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.03 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes | 78c | 278.05$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 277.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 250.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 58c | 249.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 241.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 48c | 239.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 42c | 235.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 13c | 235.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 233$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 68c | 219.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 22c | 213.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 35c | 205.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 201.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…ff06backed Yes | 60c | 192.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 54c | 181.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…794cbacked No | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 58c | 171.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…a63cbacked Yes | 50c | 164.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 69c | 160.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 153.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 29c | 142.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes | 10c | 134.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 64c | 134.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e0…1f63backed Yes | 42c | 108.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…764dbacked Yes | 74c | 107.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked No | 48c | 103.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 43c | 100.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 41c | 99.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 99.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 71c | 99.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 93.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes | 17c | 89.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 25c | 85.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 72c | 84.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 68c | 84.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 31c | 83.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 38c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 50c | 82.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…eaa5backed Yes | 36c | 82.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 38c | 80.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…6409backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 19c | 77.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 77.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked No | 67c | 72.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 72.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 43c | 70.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 48c | 65.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed No | 46c | 59.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde33…1496backed Yes | 64c | 59.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 73c | 54.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes | 57c | 50.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 61c | 49.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…709ebacked Yes | 72c | 48.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 47.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6839…a6d2backed Yes | 26c | 45.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 43.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…59e7backed Yes | 64c | 43.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda4…b4ebbacked Yes | 59c | 42.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.