TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b28…d021backed Yes6c2,054$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes70c1,440$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57dd…72cbbacked Yes65c977.16$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No43c847.45$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.9717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes32c730.6$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.826339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No53c699.89$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9324010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No54c536.1$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.0386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41cd…a24abacked No45c532.06$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes66c465.18$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3647834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed Yes7c447.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2812339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes16c436.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6883332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed No39c407.37$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d2…addebacked Yes16c401.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.982119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes4c390$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes59c352.72$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8511436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes41c315.7$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7114719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f7…b205backed Yes15c306.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.351225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes54c300.19$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9e…1217backed No45c298.38$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.11955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes18c296.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed No34c281.11$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.036538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f84…6f7ebacked Yes78c278.05$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c277.94$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.342,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c250.47$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4584759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes58c249.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c241.1$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.423,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes48c239.19$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.155154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes42c235.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes13c235.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes22c233$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.828036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes68c219.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed Yes22c213.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes35c205.49$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8746824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c201.55$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x791a…ff06backed Yes60c192.54$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes54c181.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6129922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb96…794cbacked No25c179.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes58c171.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fba…a63cbacked Yes50c164.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes69c160.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes22c160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.16139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes11c153.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c147$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.433,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes29c142.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes10c134.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes64c134.88$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.173435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e0…1f63backed Yes42c108.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbba5…764dbacked Yes74c107.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…d39fbacked No48c103.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No43c100.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.951,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes26c99.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes41c99.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8415558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes53c99.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes71c99.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.982030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No70c93.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes61c90$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes17c89.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes25c85.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43d…dd08backed Yes72c84.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No68c84.9$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.210542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa331…29b9backed Yes31c83.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes38c83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.475016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes50c82.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.283063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe80f…eaa5backed Yes36c82.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9740%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes38c80.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.262626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6760…6409backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc259…24aabacked Yes19c77.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No40c77.42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.362,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes54c74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.963930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked No67c72.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.722572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No46c72.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes43c70.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes48c65.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4854037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7534457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No46c59.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.441926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde33…1496backed Yes64c59.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-70%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes73c54.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes57c50.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c8…f330backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3449543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No61c49.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1728329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da3…709ebacked Yes72c48.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes30c47.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6839…a6d2backed Yes26c45.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No44c43.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5835…59e7backed Yes64c43.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6090…c78abacked Yes47c42.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda4…b4ebbacked Yes59c42.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.