Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73067dc4b01544b37cc0c930d3d1454c14ea5153573a62985be651abaeadb033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc81c…8974backed Yes | 16c | 4,200$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…5157backed Yes | 15c | 2,700$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 1c | 2,364$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Yes | 4c | 1,687$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…5a9dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,600$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 1,281$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,041$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes | 2c | 767.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…bfa0backed Yes | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 394.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked No | 60c | 369.61$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…b7f7backed Yes | 4c | 358.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 329.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Yes | 5c | 294.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed No | 72c | 282.16$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 7c | 275.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e0…1f63backed Yes | 18c | 250.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 44c | 227.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 209.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 180.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 175.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…1b76backed Yes | 57c | 174.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 162.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 15c | 146.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…794cbacked Yes | 12c | 132.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 30c | 131.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 49c | 125.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 112.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 42c | 108.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…998fbacked Yes | 45c | 88.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 80.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…1fb3backed Yes | 25c | 80.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 69.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 30c | 67.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked No | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde33…1496backed Yes | 22c | 58.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…4e6abacked No | 78c | 48.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed No | 60c | 42.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 50c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 31c | 38.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…6b39backed No | 79c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 28c | 36.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…97abbacked No | 67c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked No | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…0c98backed No | 75c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.