Movies · resolved market
Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66c509b6896af6dcdb5afb44fd28c38f694adf8ba9ee1caa6b166275f5eecac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 5c | 6,405$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 5c | 4,229$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 77 | 20.8%16 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 79c | 2,804$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.63 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 1,345$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 131 | 23.7%31 W · 100 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 20c | 989.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 984$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 19c | 945.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 8c | 771.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 721.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 678.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 6c | 641.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 8c | 486.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 334.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 5c | 288.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 5c | 283.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 261.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 249.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 7c | 208.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 22c | 202$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 8c | 170.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 14c | 121.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 79c | 80.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…5d20backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 114 | 85.1%97 W · 17 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the top global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "The Last House" be the top global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.