Music · resolved market
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c082e1721097384d2d7fe28b6f3628290fd6683b857fb1e3fb9dfad7762749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabd7…a0cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 1,085$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 731.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 658.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 529.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…ff2abacked Yes | 14c | 347.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 344.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 312$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…b451backed Yes | 11c | 276.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…32d1backed Yes | 5c | 274.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 12c | 256.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 250.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 11c | 217.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 210.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…b7a9backed Yes | 6c | 190.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 184.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…aa95backed Yes | 13c | 164.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 11c | 123$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 81.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 73c | 54.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 50.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.