Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912caa763db0c86630ec9e0e2eae73dba3f0f39d7f10214fc244f94d0e7fde80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 67c | 1,749$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.72 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 30c | 1,704$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.94 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 35c | 573.92$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 449.63$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.04 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 21c | 358.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 48c | 311.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 277.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 21c | 266.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 254.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 252.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.3 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 233.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 6c | 204.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 25c | 204.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.71 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 174.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 35c | 169.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 72c | 108.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 32c | 77.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 73.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 49c | 72.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 78c | 71.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 27c | 63.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…9baebacked No | 67c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 50.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 52c | 47.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 42c | 42.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 63c | 40.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 33c | 39.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…7576backed Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…b587backed No | 77c | 34.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 72c | 26.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked No | 63c | 25.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or below on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29-30°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31-32°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33-34°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37-38°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or higher on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.