Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33-34°F on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca722801380e84b87fefdf1c30531469798e8dd23ad1406e2bc81ada78f73bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 38c | 836.45$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked No | 70c | 458.54$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 57c | 405.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 337.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 51c | 291.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked No | 74c | 242.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 55c | 223.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 53c | 168$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 156.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 154.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…14efbacked No | 71c | 146.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked No | 37c | 129.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 118.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 56c | 118.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 117.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 47c | 116.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 56c | 112.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 52c | 95.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…f253backed No | 50c | 95.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 48c | 79.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…3921backed Yes | 24c | 79.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 52c | 77.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 38c | 74.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 49c | 71.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 57c | 69.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 57c | 60.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…3364backed Yes | 58c | 58.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 48c | 51.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 53c | 51.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 49c | 47.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…f77fbacked No | 79c | 47.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed Yes | 47c | 45.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 67c | 43.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…1fccbacked No | 72c | 42.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 55c | 39.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…fac2backed Yes | 51c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 55c | 34.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 58c | 31.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 43c | 29.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 60c | 28.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 50c | 26.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 58c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 51c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 41c | 24.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…ce12backed Yes | 51c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…ddf3backed Yes | 62c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…bc33backed Yes | 57c | 21.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33-34°F on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or below on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29-30°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31-32°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37-38°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or higher on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.