Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31-32°F on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc203c8efd9c569ea880423593801f56dfd761a205507a9ce3c6f781a06410adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 78c | 796.56$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 748.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 16c | 719$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 714.36$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 9c | 662$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 11c | 492.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…5c46backed Yes | 11c | 454$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 343.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 318.32$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 310.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…fac2backed Yes | 10c | 300.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 30c | 198.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 14c | 136$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 18c | 132.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 131$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 22c | 116.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 17c | 115.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 108.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 15c | 100.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…f253backed Yes | 24c | 92.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 89.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…8577backed Yes | 41c | 69.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 34c | 64.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 24c | 53.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…27d0backed Yes | 47c | 52.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 41.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…bcbcbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 36.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 79c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302d…cd3fbacked Yes | 45c | 22.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 78c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…56d0backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31-32°F on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or below on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29-30°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33-34°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37-38°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or higher on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.