Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdd3c3c0b496d86b67f302333ca2bcf80fa5258c1b8d85922907815be7ea3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d1…94e2backed Yes | 1c | 17,616$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 10c | 15,858$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…ccfdbacked Yes | 1c | 15,781$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c63…0680backed Yes | 1c | 15,307$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e8…7441backed Yes | 1c | 14,429$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…736cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 2c | 5,552$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Yes | 14c | 4,694$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 71c | 4,638$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,265$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 3,592$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,569$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…2b3abacked Yes | 2c | 2,479$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…3ad0backed Yes | 2c | 2,317$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 80c | 2,186$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.67 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,171$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…8143backed Yes | 2c | 2,133$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…f0a0backed Yes | 25c | 2,127$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…701ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,016$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…5e55backed Yes | 1c | 1,948$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 14c | 1,375$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…8226backed Yes | 10c | 965.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…169bbacked Yes | 10c | 961.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…ad81backed Yes | 20c | 931$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 68c | 845.39$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.04 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…50e7backed Yes | 30c | 832.28$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…eb03backed Yes | 2c | 772.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 736.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 3c | 605$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fe…8b28backed Yes | 36c | 562.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 16c | 550.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…ccf8backed Yes | 5c | 548.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 532.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…a801backed Yes | 6c | 502.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158b…6472backed Yes | 24c | 468.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099b…7855backed Yes | 23c | 434.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 428.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f2…c379backed Yes | 28c | 412.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfa…bdedbacked Yes | 9c | 407.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…8791backed Yes | 19c | 374.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ae…8ee4backed No | 70c | 370$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 329.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…e4e2backed Yes | 31c | 324.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…c6babacked Yes | 16c | 316.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 20c | 305$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 80c | 293.89$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 293.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 75c | 271.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 78c | 249.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 67c | 238.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 25c | 238.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed No | 78c | 234.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 35c | 230.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6c…be7cbacked Yes | 23c | 216.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…0fe2backed Yes | 22c | 209.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 21c | 201.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…b74bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 194.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…b0d3backed Yes | 11c | 177.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…e707backed Yes | 13c | 174.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 61c | 172.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 65c | 167$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed No | 76c | 158.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 34c | 156.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…2ecfbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked No | 78c | 128.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed No | 70c | 126.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…2d8bbacked Yes | 18c | 122.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2d54backed Yes | 10c | 101.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…a76ebacked No | 79c | 90.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…a26cbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…6aefbacked Yes | 27c | 70.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…6f23backed Yes | 31c | 64.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 77c | 62.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 53.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 50.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 44.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 43.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…f1b0backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 78c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…b64fbacked Yes | 37c | 29.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 78c | 28.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?this page
- Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Ernest Audino be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Joshua Vasquez be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.