TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$204,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d1…94e2backed Yes1c17,616$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes10c15,858$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.161533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…ccfdbacked Yes1c15,781$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c63…0680backed Yes1c15,307$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e8…7441backed Yes1c14,429$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes1c10,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb631…736cbacked Yes1c7,152$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes2c5,552$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Yes14c4,694$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No71c4,638$3,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.021172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+219.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,265$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3749411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c3,592$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.672832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c3,569$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c3,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b7…2b3abacked Yes2c2,479$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ece…3ad0backed Yes2c2,317$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No80c2,186$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.675350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c2,171$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…8143backed Yes2c2,133$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171c…f0a0backed Yes25c2,127$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a7…701ebacked Yes21c2,016$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…5e55backed Yes1c1,948$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c1,452$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes14c1,375$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-64.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab00…8226backed Yes10c965.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fc…169bbacked Yes10c961.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Yes20c931$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No68c845.39$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.0422833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49f4…50e7backed Yes30c832.28$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb264…eb03backed Yes2c772.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c736.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.03816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes3c605$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fe…8b28backed Yes36c562.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes16c550.88$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8790%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025d…ccf8backed Yes5c548.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes7c532.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.263910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3c…a801backed Yes6c502.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x158b…6472backed Yes24c468.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099b…7855backed Yes23c434.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c428.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f2…c379backed Yes28c412.48$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfa…bdedbacked Yes9c407.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c400$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9431434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0096…8791backed Yes19c374.35$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ae…8ee4backed No70c370$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c329.68$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c27…e4e2backed Yes31c324.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedd6…c6babacked Yes16c316.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes20c305$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.260%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked No80c293.89$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes18c293.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.86137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No75c271.85$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.273378.8%26 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+34.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No78c249.28$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.623348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No67c238.79$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes25c238.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb23…8189backed No78c234.89$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.76650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes35c230.51$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.681643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6c…be7cbacked Yes23c216.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb93…0fe2backed Yes22c209.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes21c201.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.36per pick55cpaid-75.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0082…b74bbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c194.22$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.133751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14d8…b0d3backed Yes11c177.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7f…e707backed Yes13c174.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No61c172.52$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.799646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No65c167$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.853036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed No76c158.15$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.412040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes34c156.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9689…2ecfbacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5670…2b9cbacked No78c128.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d6…9ab8backed No70c126.37$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3f…2d8bbacked Yes18c122.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1518…2d54backed Yes10c101.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3216020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6476…a76ebacked No79c90.61$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8af…a26cbacked No77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8772…e179backed Yes33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f23…6aefbacked Yes27c70.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb925…6f23backed Yes31c64.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No77c62.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.14330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No77c58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c53.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes24c50.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9666914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No68c44.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.194957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No77c43.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0921155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5e…f1b0backed No68c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No78c34.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No80c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ce…b64fbacked Yes37c29.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No78c28.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No72c15.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.295950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.