Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66be8921960aacc7b1cfd714a1cefd62a658dcb11f31430fa3d454b59cdc5a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 58c | 2,407$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.11 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 18c | 1,825$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 1,725$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 1,718$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 80c | 1,543$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 1c | 1,494$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…8738backed No | 3c | 800.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…e4e2backed No | 42c | 721.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 714$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Yes | 80c | 618.05$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 69c | 577.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 10c | 512.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 468.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 78c | 465.57$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 6c | 420.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 366.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 313.45$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 301.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 283$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 57c | 256.37$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 41c | 243.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 235.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 6c | 212.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 207.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 202.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 194.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 78c | 191.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 66c | 175.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 171.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 75c | 136.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 18c | 126$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 85.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 85.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 82.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…50e7backed No | 38c | 76.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 17c | 60.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…94aabacked Yes | 63c | 57.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 42c | 43.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…cc05backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 30c | 38.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 70c | 38.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 60c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 64c | 35.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…6aefbacked Yes | 78c | 28.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587d…8f30backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 56c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?this page
- Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Ernest Audino be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
- Will Joshua Vasquez be the Republican nominee for FL-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.