Movies · resolved market
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5707cfddc5fdcb1ae4f6506d467421a94275e8f957e7be5466eda51a6c7ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 9c | 10,105$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 77c | 2,285$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.22 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 7c | 1,270$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…3a98backed Yes | 10c | 1,176$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…2fa5backed Yes | 19c | 876.79$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked Yes | 76c | 653$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 3c | 618$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 73c | 510$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 463.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 5c | 396.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…6177backed Yes | 5c | 396.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 11c | 363.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…bc21backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…b624backed Yes | 5c | 277.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 26c | 274.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 266.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…225ebacked Yes | 6c | 249.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 39c | 240.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 9c | 184.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…adcdbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 34c | 108.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…bea8backed Yes | 10c | 104.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 21c | 60.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 79c | 54.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Black Phone 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Jennifer's Body" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.