Movies · resolved market
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x638437d8815cafaf2efe0046b56e0714baae6ca3a41cf3cbf6bb694ec1f76008
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,922$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,477$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 19c | 864.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 79c | 374.69$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 72c | 250.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 205.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 159.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 25c | 139.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed No | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 79c | 41.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 31c | 40.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 39.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…5af0backed No | 80c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m?this page
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m?No won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m?Yes won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m?No won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.