Movies · resolved market
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe653de3c9b684b6b8d1865daf3339d053630f3dd9958fdc1cfba57f28fca01c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,017$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.17 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 29c | 2,404$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.54 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,199$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.88 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.87 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,998$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.64 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 30c | 1,855$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.36 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 80c | 1,381$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.24 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 73c | 1,110$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.32 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 25c | 800.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 14c | 760$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 73c | 737.98$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 442$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 394.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 21c | 377.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 315.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 277$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 19c | 263.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 74c | 253.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 78c | 250$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 76c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 69c | 226.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 19c | 216.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 210$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 20c | 157.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 101.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…8be7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 72c | 94.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac59…8ee2backed Yes | 30c | 77.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 79c | 44.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 39.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 74c | 36.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m?this page
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m?No won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m?Yes won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m?No won
- Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.