AI · resolved market
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c40fa8814530a49242da117f909c226c79ac6ddbfecd5caa793593b81635f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 79c | 337.9$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 286.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…4744backed Yes | 28c | 275$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 24c | 244.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…07cabacked Yes | 38c | 208.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 203.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 177.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…716dbacked No | 65c | 154.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…77e5backed Yes | 16c | 154.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x318e…c355backed Yes | 10c | 151.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…9903backed Yes | 40c | 125.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…ae1ebacked Yes | 23c | 109.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…ad45backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…06edbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…5088backed Yes | 50c | 80.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…1e9abacked No | 72c | 77.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…df91backed Yes | 58c | 76.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…0f57backed Yes | 34c | 70.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…3499backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 56.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…6f6dbacked No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1c56backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…e27cbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…9ac8backed Yes | 27c | 45.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 48c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…1c2cbacked Yes | 38c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…84f1backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed No | 74c | 38.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…bb4abacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…6a78backed No | 63c | 36.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…5016backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 40c | 33.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa892…c3acbacked No | 74c | 33.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed No | 51c | 31.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…4585backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 36c | 27.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…ee86backed No | 58c | 26.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…ea1dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 52c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed No | 59c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8654…f2dfbacked No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.