Movies · resolved market
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d614efa42040bbada88ebec7c62f288e4f22256a80a3ee0b563c1be6a3a686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 6c | 2,703$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 4c | 2,448$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 5c | 1,850$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 956.93$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 2c | 888$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 47c | 826.82$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.21 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 624.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 5c | 379$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 53c | 361.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 4c | 293.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 53c | 249.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 155.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked No | 13c | 147.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 134.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 43c | 97.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed No | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…cb3cbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 52c | 23.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 72c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?this page
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.