Movies · resolved market
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564d542df50484a8af4a30cc398e8e11d2c61587c84ca22a170b1d0e35e6fcb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,922$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.29 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 16c | 1,897$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.98 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 8c | 1,553$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,095$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 21c | 853.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…389cbacked Yes | 11c | 784$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 590.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 27c | 401.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 17c | 400.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 308.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 11c | 299.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +161%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 296$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 8c | 252.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 247.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 8c | 244.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 243.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 22c | 154.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 128.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…15d4backed Yes | 27c | 107.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 81.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 76c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.