Venezuela · resolved market
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd373cd35f29c39a4fb45b7c31f8619d142aec0b4f863245510d1b3169c5502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,082,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,008,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,082,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35b9…772bbacked Yes | 5c | 297,189$14,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,037.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 27,868$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 17,613$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…d22ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,398$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,932$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,979$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 2c | 12,808$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 0c | 12,754$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 11,602$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 8,185$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,839$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,568$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…ca9ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,343$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 5,110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 4,917$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,941$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,633$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 3c | 3,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 4c | 3,071$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,936$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,891$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…c97cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,564$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,484$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…029bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,374$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 2,285$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…d762backed Yes | 1c | 2,275$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 2,177$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…6ae5backed Yes | 3c | 2,124$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,972$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…6457backed Yes | 2c | 1,926$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,922$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b31bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,821$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,779$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,418$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…e98bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…7514backed Yes | 1c | 1,241$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3935…4da3backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d4…e97dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed Yes | 1c | 1,108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,067$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 1,056$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…14afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,022$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7651backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 956.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 930$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…6fedbacked Yes | 1c | 910.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…7069backed Yes | 2c | 909.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268d…4820backed Yes | 2c | 908.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…3511backed Yes | 3c | 886.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes | 3c | 721.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…b0e2backed Yes | 1c | 721.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec7…5bafbacked Yes | 3c | 713.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 2c | 688.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…b926backed Yes | 2c | 660$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 3c | 621.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…b7bebacked Yes | 2c | 618.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 616.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 4c | 578.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…551ebacked Yes | 4c | 520$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…957cbacked Yes | 3c | 500.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…d914backed Yes | 3c | 483.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 476.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860a…527cbacked Yes | 3c | 474.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…1ee4backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 301.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…c3b7backed Yes | 4c | 293.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.