World Politics · resolved market
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb264f5ade97f295fcef29021dd6f4a83fd45a82e9c2b2b0f283cc19fc9e8e3d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7644…7f5ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,362$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…14fabacked Yes | 3c | 13,719$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1469…30c0backed Yes | 2c | 8,123$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 7,180$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…358abacked Yes | 4c | 6,223$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…f03bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,567$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…805bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,471$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 2c | 3,411$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,403$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…69d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,987$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,730$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…fc35backed Yes | 2c | 2,360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…92e4backed Yes | 2c | 2,087$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…303dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,010$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…2bb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,814$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,784$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,598$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,586$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…6b6abacked Yes | 13c | 1,562$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,502$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,393$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…bf71backed Yes | 1c | 1,342$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,339$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…8372backed Yes | 8c | 1,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,324$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…43ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,257$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,233$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…bb20backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81d…7706backed Yes | 18c | 1,151$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 1,112$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Yes | 17c | 1,002$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…0ccfbacked Yes | 5c | 948.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 875.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 829.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 11c | 811.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…f823backed Yes | 2c | 646.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e9a6backed Yes | 4c | 635.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…ae5bbacked Yes | 12c | 610.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 563.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…4be2backed Yes | 18c | 534.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd1…69d0backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…53d2backed Yes | 8c | 518.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 494.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 428.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…7089backed Yes | 7c | 418.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 5c | 360$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3abd…1608backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 356.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 347.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ee…ee3bbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 258.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 228.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…7e9bbacked Yes | 5c | 211.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 12c | 202.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…ed62backed Yes | 21c | 198.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 21c | 193.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…fb97backed Yes | 20c | 175.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 172.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…e617backed Yes | 14c | 143.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd9…7835backed Yes | 12c | 130.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…a2b1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 8c | 123.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…fb88backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…e0e8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 12c | 97.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 20c | 73.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 75c | 69.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…639fbacked Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…3399backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.