Movies · resolved market
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4044057af14766d9ac2d4e542891f410d5ef64a6c272551e3558048b4f67a2d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 8c | 7,773$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.41 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 1c | 6,257$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 9c | 3,989$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.52 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 3c | 3,926$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 5c | 2,889$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 2,493$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.33 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 4c | 1,973$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 1,650$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 10c | 1,400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 13c | 1,400$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,264$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.74 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 799.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 786.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…8afebacked No | 6c | 775.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 761.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…d0e8backed No | 3c | 646.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 4c | 397.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 13c | 295$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 11c | 252$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 11c | 237.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed No | 27c | 225$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 210.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…7d04backed No | 17c | 86.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…d220backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?this page
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 54m and 58m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 58m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.