TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes6c2,464$149 inLost-$148.9529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,493$13 inLost-$13.232119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes2c814.34$14 inLost-$13.571323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c784.96$14 inLost-$14.012821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes2c591.31$14 inLost-$143119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes7c432.77$32 inLost-$32758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7877…3cccbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.