World Politics · resolved market
Cho Tae-yong in jail by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528ff0803d424b939c185c0eb44b20076b0b85c2bcc6d7765eb8d9c8f980c5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 80c | 6,807$5,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,014$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 73c | 2,611$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.3 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 27c | 2,455$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.79 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…6515backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 28c | 1,815$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.87 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,477$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.03 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 499.97$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.98 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 72c | 495.06$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 27c | 400$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 75c | 334.65$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 49c | 324.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 286.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 259.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 239.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 214$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 198.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 176.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 74c | 159.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 77c | 136.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…d070backed No | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 108.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 74c | 105.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb55…c6a0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…edc7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…861bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b507backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…966ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 18.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.