Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288210995023c1d6e80102b897f45e5aa8dee7b2ba838f9e8e0508c6ec7aeb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,660$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,499$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.43 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 71c | 1,390$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.74 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 1,108$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 1c | 857.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 59c | 614.17$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 76c | 524.64$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 64c | 431.93$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 53c | 427$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 35c | 399.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.37 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 59c | 332.87$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Yes | 61c | 330$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 299$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 295$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 247.64$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 229.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 212.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…cb4bbacked No | 64c | 205$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 69c | 191.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 76c | 188.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 175$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 51c | 167.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 153.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…84e0backed Yes | 77c | 150.65$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 31c | 149.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 49c | 121.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 36c | 114.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed Yes | 53c | 112.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 25c | 112$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f04…80ebbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 70c | 99.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 58c | 97.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 31c | 94.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 57c | 89.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…73efbacked Yes | 14c | 88.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 86.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 41c | 81.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 20c | 81.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf549…1472backed Yes | 74c | 75.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 73.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 65.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 46c | 62.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 60c | 54.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 46c | 49.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed No | 42c | 45.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 68c | 45.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…0a68backed Yes | 53c | 41.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…3fd2backed Yes | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked Yes | 43c | 39.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 60c | 33.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 38c | 31.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked Yes | 51c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 67c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 75c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 76c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on December 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.