Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x820a6812ee9a640c2abde87620308576ad88df1843194e642f77f3664bfd8180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 2,107$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 1,514$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 47c | 1,388$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.47 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 52c | 814.46$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 17c | 810.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 65c | 681.54$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.24 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 24c | 599.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.69 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 59c | 550$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 45c | 490.02$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 73c | 490$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 63c | 469.27$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 65c | 458.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 54c | 420.01$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 400.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Yes | 37c | 330$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 43c | 329.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 74c | 320.53$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed No | 67c | 316.57$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 38c | 310.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 70c | 257.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 58c | 239.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 60c | 219.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 76c | 204.45$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 44c | 192.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 181.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 27c | 178.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 176.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 47c | 163.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…cb4bbacked Yes | 47c | 155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 51c | 150.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 55c | 140.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 132.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 40c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 58c | 129.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 15c | 118.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 32c | 116.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 23c | 108.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 66c | 108.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 32c | 107.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 38c | 91.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 20c | 85.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 49c | 81.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f04…80ebbacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf549…1472backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 52c | 59.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 39c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…3fd2backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 73c | 45.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…960abacked No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 45c | 34.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed Yes | 51c | 30.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 76c | 30.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed Yes | 40c | 29.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 48c | 27.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 52c | 25.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…602fbacked Yes | 51c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on December 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on December 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.