Earnings · resolved market
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48327fa556569551a94bea4da4141137c04aa7d28db9b062562224598c201757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 24c | 3,458$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.87 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 23c | 2,022$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.96 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 18c | 2,000$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,908$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.18 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…7d42backed Yes | 78c | 1,550$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…7530backed Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…deebbacked Yes | 75c | 1,150$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…1790backed No | 23c | 994.56$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…74bcbacked Yes | 78c | 642.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 19c | 579.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 21c | 551.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 16c | 499.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 23c | 460$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dde…2a91backed Yes | 79c | 441.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 436.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfb…f341backed Yes | 78c | 382$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…43aebacked Yes | 79c | 379.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 35c | 347.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…bc4ebacked Yes | 79c | 329.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 264.08$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8763…1d11backed Yes | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 23c | 237.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 18c | 223.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 19c | 214.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 72c | 211$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked No | 23c | 210.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 25c | 202.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 198.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 22c | 184.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0322…0846backed Yes | 77c | 173.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…ab24backed Yes | 65c | 136.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 19c | 135.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…ba80backed No | 22c | 127.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 56c | 114.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 110.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 32c | 107.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 49c | 81.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…abfabacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 28c | 48.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f75…dc70backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…f8d4backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked Yes | 79c | 30.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…f6bdbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…6f3fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 71c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…6547backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…728cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.