Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895671a84a579b2e9adca7f5082a195aea9971b023b0c016c8e86de58a45eb3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 839.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 641.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 304.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 72c | 300.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 46c | 258.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 33c | 246.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…087abacked Yes | 70c | 243.28$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 8c | 208.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 62c | 208.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 68c | 188.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 74c | 170.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 63c | 166.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 163.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 76c | 157.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 55c | 151.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 66c | 148.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…e5b9backed Yes | 68c | 146.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 27c | 129.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…2d92backed Yes | 52c | 128.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 68c | 105.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 35c | 97.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 39c | 87.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 61c | 83.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…d121backed Yes | 80c | 50.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 40c | 45.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…4dafbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…151cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…3967backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 79c | 22.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 66c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.