Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9682ba1fbc72d810cfbef54436de55015141b0a948676873a6e40b2d0798b17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 0c | 14,612$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed Yes | 1c | 6,725$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,785$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 22c | 2,046$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.15 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 75c | 1,518$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.95 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 29c | 1,298$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…a7e0backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 2c | 815.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 813.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 29c | 687.93$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 30c | 503.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…bb67backed Yes | 30c | 362.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 316.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 19c | 274.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c3…dbf7backed Yes | 29c | 241.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 9c | 240.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 18c | 229.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 220$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 27c | 210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed No | 78c | 208.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 32c | 199.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 24c | 194.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 13c | 188.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 70c | 187$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 18c | 174.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 161.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 76c | 156$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 152.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 26c | 112.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…b55dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…76c5backed Yes | 26c | 99.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 74c | 85.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 65.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 30c | 60.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…8e69backed No | 78c | 58.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…75e8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 41c | 46.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 43.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…a28bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on December 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.