TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x728f…b55d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST2133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10.3
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+62%+$21.04
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Open de Moselle: Clement Tabur vs Vitaliy Sachkobacked Sachko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+213.3%+$68.08
Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmannbacked Giron · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Open de Moselle: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Muller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Alexander Bublikbacked Sachko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+650%+$260
Hellenic Championship: Yannick Hanfmann vs Vit Koprivabacked Kopriva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Open de Moselle: Learner Tien vs Moez Echarguibacked Echargui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Open de Moselle: Arthur Cazaux vs Cameron Norriebacked Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+168.1%+$87.77
Hellenic Championship: Eliot Spizzirri vs Nuno Borgesbacked Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+215.8%+$71.75
Open de Moselle: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Sonegobacked Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.49
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+37.4%+$13.6
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegulabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$57.73
Open de Moselle: Corentin Moutet vs Aleksandar Vukicbacked Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+480.1%+$86.9
Open de Moselle: Matteo Berrettini vs Quentin Halysbacked Halys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$18.5
Open de Moselle: Valentin Royer vs Cameron Norriebacked Royer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$64.6
Kings vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$31.55
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Mavericks vs. Thunderbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$176.93
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$90
76ers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Spurs vs. Cavaliersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Nuggets vs. Hawksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+525%+$420
Jazz vs. Knicksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$17.98
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. CSUN Matadorsbacked Bakersfield Roadrunners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.