TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Pegula
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$395,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$492,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Pegula25c50,275$12,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,368.652850%14 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Sabalenka75c36,821$27,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,099.085950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Sabalenka76c32,757$24,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,003.897857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Pegula25c24,774$6,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,193.541942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pegula15c19,566$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.478,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adb…a902backed Pegula27c18,760$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Sabalenka75c18,234$13,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.541758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Sabalenka73c13,918$10,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,757.8622037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x857c…cb02backed Pegula25c12,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pegula4c10,221$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.711,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pegula24c7,602$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.469137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Sabalenka80c7,587$6,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.2264755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Sabalenka75c5,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.336549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Sabalenka74c5,093$3,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.6215048%72 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Pegula29c4,609$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.1216644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Sabalenka75c4,015$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.7511852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pegula26c3,745$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.2711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Pegula11c3,312$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.361414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Pegula30c3,082$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91925722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Pegula58c3,000$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.767375.3%55 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d1b…3c9ebacked Pegula27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Sabalenka76c2,939$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.4715862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf8…b8eabacked Sabalenka78c2,751$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Sabalenka59c2,697$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.9144360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pegula27c2,553$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.442,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a2…4a13backed Pegula27c2,368$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac7d…6bdabacked Sabalenka69c2,211$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x286c…caffbacked Sabalenka75c2,192$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.981675%12 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Sabalenka75c2,120$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5309257.6%53 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b04…6549backed Pegula14c2,086$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.784630.4%14 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7915…f32fbacked Pegula31c2,084$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.571275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+33.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Pegula18c2,083$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6826535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Sabalenka75c2,013$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.8559151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Pegula27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Pegula25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sabalenka67c1,964$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.752,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sabalenka60c1,728$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.746,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Pegula24c1,700$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9822344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Sabalenka76c1,696$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.061662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Sabalenka62c1,507$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.5611053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77dd…926dbacked Pegula27c1,499$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d92…3a3ebacked Sabalenka68c1,430$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Pegula39c1,288$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49824852%129 W · 119 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Sabalenka59c1,227$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.9224844.8%111 W · 137 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877e…b283backed Pegula31c1,163$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.611127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Pegula35c1,153$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Sabalenka76c1,095$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7424558.8%144 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Pegula24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24022744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Pegula26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sabalenka72c979.58$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7765647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad23…a614backed Sabalenka55c906.11$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…dd42backed Sabalenka45c894.94$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Pegula16c878.76$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.561,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Pegula23c877.54$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056250%31 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Sabalenka77c876.61$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9218957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Sabalenka71c857.64$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5170465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df0…8f4ebacked Pegula18c852.32$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.842339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Pegula23c788.69$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6575547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fad…b5b2backed Pegula16c740$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.42128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Pegula25c628.97$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2944125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Pegula49c628.87$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.515151%26 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Pegula27c600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Pegula27c575.37$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.328952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Sabalenka72c555.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.563151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pegula30c542.57$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.662,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Sabalenka75c532.56$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pegula24c521$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0462742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Pegula30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Sabalenka63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18528451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Pegula20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Pegula35c491.15$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.92245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Sabalenka75c467.26$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.814456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Pegula31c451.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14051933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Pegula4c429.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910822.2%24 W · 84 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Pegula25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f2…212ebacked Sabalenka75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73c0…0afebacked Sabalenka73c399.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f02…8cb2backed Pegula26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc08b…e35bbacked Sabalenka72c375.24$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.91875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+100.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x728f…b55dbacked Pegula15c373.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.732133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b1…c973backed Sabalenka54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.373855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+44.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8674…2ababacked Pegula25c370$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Sabalenka77c369$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8717867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Pegula46c332.92$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.681353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Pegula24c330$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.224340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf2…29d6backed Sabalenka63c317.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33a8…2a71backed Sabalenka75c312.51$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.13955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2a…c0eebacked Sabalenka79c301.24$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.761060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-16.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb961…b69ebacked Sabalenka47c299.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda63…68e4backed Sabalenka62c278.97$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Pegula16c278.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4546556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Sabalenka75c278$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.54751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9494…308abacked Pegula39c244.58$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Sabalenka75c236$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5926462.1%164 W · 100 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Sabalenka74c225.77$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.728141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2022…04b8backed Sabalenka75c202.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.522576%19 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Sabalenka75c200.04$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0110372.8%75 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Pegula60c196.52$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9146040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Pegula26c179.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.669149.5%45 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Sabalenka61c175.25$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.92356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.