TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof 76ers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,879,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,953,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,879,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,064 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Bucks50c378,394$190,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190,0005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers50c218,427$109,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,207.71,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks49c148,351$73,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,01151350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Bucks48c124,000$59,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,3203839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed 76ers53c113,213$59,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,241.1920253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed 76ers53c73,854$38,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,019.281,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 76ers49c71,253$34,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,339.0726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers58c52,179$30,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,036.465,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Bucks48c50,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,0001872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 76ers52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.991,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers51c40,800$20,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,9921,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks48c40,666$19,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,506.41,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed 76ers53c38,500$20,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,95517861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Bucks48c38,499$18,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,339.6921450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers51c30,663$15,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,131.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked 76ers50c27,540$13,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,77026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers52c20,366$10,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,856.713,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bucks47c20,040$9,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,418.9313455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bucks49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Bucks50c19,926$9,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,96321944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed 76ers53c18,695$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,694.8634062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks48c17,121$8,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,297.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed 76ers54c16,777$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,776.538649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers52c15,767$8,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,489.412,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 76ers52c15,555$8,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,466.415952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed 76ers52c15,000$7,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,249.9956945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers52c13,366$6,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,401.852,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers68c12,836$8,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,070.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 76ers51c12,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,88059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks12c11,598$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.621,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked 76ers52c11,294$5,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,412.2469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.991,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bucks46c9,931$4,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,582.271,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Bucks10c9,875$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers50c9,740$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8702,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Bucks48c9,730$4,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,630.3810547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…6066backed Bucks47c9,155$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa495…cc3bbacked Bucks49c8,545$4,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,187540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked 76ers57c7,016$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.4126038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked 76ers66c6,585$4,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.3644654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bucks50c6,500$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,25047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks8c6,401$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked 76ers52c6,293$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.9422449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed 76ers53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82076249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0566…9b36backed 76ers52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed 76ers51c5,501$2,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.582138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed 76ers52c5,259$2,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.9248938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…26c5backed Bucks48c5,066$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eed…4e6fbacked 76ers51c5,021$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 76ers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed 76ers51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4505850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54b…d268backed Bucks8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed 76ers51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9618045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bucks47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9666250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Bucks48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9531445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…62fcbacked 76ers51c4,974$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d53…4549backed Bucks48c4,929$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x059f…2462backed 76ers52c4,535$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4f…b824backed Bucks48c4,527$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…ee0abacked Bucks49c4,409$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked 76ers52c4,187$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.889851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Bucks48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Bucks47c4,013$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.295556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed 76ers52c4,000$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 76ers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked 76ers53c3,700$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7392462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…1dccbacked Bucks48c3,700$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7762339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c31…52c7backed Bucks49c3,667$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2001…19b8backed 76ers51c3,663$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed 76ers52c3,608$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.22,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers50c3,505$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.152,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x660d…2e08backed 76ers52c3,400$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6324850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Bucks43c3,204$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.697259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bucks7c3,100$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…1e8bbacked 76ers51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4701353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Bucks11c3,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.565541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Bucks46c2,995$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.694223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers51c2,785$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.1272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Bucks50c2,746$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.9143051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bucks46c2,708$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.7678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks5c2,553$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.941,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2a…587ebacked 76ers51c2,550$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks1c2,510$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed 76ers54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15091050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…f7b4backed 76ers53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1751369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb90…9f85backed Bucks47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.981070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed 76ers51c2,499$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.511931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed 76ers52c2,411$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.6944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Bucks13c2,254$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30048132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…65fabacked 76ers53c2,227$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.696160.7%37 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4919…0c56backed Bucks48c2,200$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0569742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed 76ers53c2,181$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.037347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Bucks47c2,108$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.5727840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda79…dc90backed Bucks48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4131…4030backed 76ers53c2,083$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.01944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 76ers50c2,072$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.662,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee86…e302backed Bucks49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed 76ers51c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99011649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.