NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda8cf0845ff503861b16f3140e98f6a1c2f8d56eddd7c563d1f420a357a3cefd

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof 76ers, Bucks
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x92db…4fabbacked Bucks	54c	3,700$1,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,998	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9a…5ecebacked 76ers	46c	3,700$1,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,998	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	54c	1,391$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.89	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked 76ers	46c	1,000$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bucks	54c	402.16$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.17	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked 76ers	46c	400$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Bucks	55c	243$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.65	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked 76ers	46c	243$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.22	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked 76ers	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	293	46.4%136 W · 157 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked 76ers	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…3017backed 76ers	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa2…1531backed 76ers	47c	78.95$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.84	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked 76ers	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	53c	40.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.71	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Bucks	54c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked 76ers	45c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed 76ers	47c	26.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Bucks	54c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event