Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70cd319a52c75cab186edc85456e60d6863e7a81bda1cd400b3e7b23464ad6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 2c | 1,875$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 45c | 788.91$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 674.18$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 39c | 599.95$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 59c | 448.54$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 38c | 371.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 364.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 362.75$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 20c | 349.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 8c | 268.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 54c | 235.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 215.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…406dbacked Yes | 47c | 211.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…e636backed Yes | 25c | 202.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 68c | 181.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…172fbacked No | 63c | 160.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 157.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 150.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 47c | 132.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…bbbdbacked No | 46c | 124.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +314.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 48c | 108.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 22c | 103.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…b657backed No | 60c | 95.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes | 64c | 87.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 60c | 72.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…5286backed Yes | 19c | 59.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…b55dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…7c5abacked No | 57c | 47.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 44c | 45.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…f77ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 59c | 38.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…91d3backed Yes | 47c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 57c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…b941backed No | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…9313backed No | 39c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 56c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…11f5backed Yes | 67c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 60c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…0f56backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.