Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33cec5eb8c35e3c241c34fee7a50b8e86b90827cea660acc59c4dbed10bd010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd140…bbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 27,733$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +314.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 0c | 3,427$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 1c | 2,680$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…8242backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 46c | 1,786$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.06 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…f37bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,582$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 13c | 1,303$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.35 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 1,078$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 9c | 833$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 63c | 756.04$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 43c | 743.34$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…5286backed Yes | 69c | 446.6$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 59c | 424.89$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 415.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 33c | 395$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 18c | 376$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.72 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 30c | 322.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 15c | 297.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 50c | 222.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked Yes | 22c | 194.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 46c | 188$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 75c | 174.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 165.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 42c | 151.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 66c | 135.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 67c | 129.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 48c | 128.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 8c | 123.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 106.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 73c | 103.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…b941backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…406dbacked Yes | 50c | 99.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 32c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 60c | 82.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 62c | 75.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 75.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 42c | 66.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked No | 67c | 57.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…3506backed No | 79c | 55.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 42c | 51.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…0a40backed Yes | 24c | 44.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +443.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 42c | 43.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 40c | 42.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…3b2abacked Yes | 63c | 39.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…c3f7backed Yes | 35c | 39.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 37.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…3a00backed No | 66c | 37.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…9d83backed No | 70c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4ba6backed No | 63c | 32.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 49c | 26.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…020bbacked No | 47c | 23.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a9…f290backed Yes | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a29…1e65backed Yes | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…dbd5backed Yes | 71c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…3686backed Yes | 79c | 17.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…7c5abacked No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.