Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c566a2d852f117cec8b7c710bbf4f32808067eb862fcab128e9bbdd80a9d0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 22c | 1,065$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.62 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 910$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 47c | 595.25$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.68 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 47c | 437.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 32c | 406.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 364.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 343.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 10c | 310$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 66c | 281.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.54 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…353cbacked Yes | 47c | 257.75$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 55c | 252.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 36c | 249.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.91 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 68c | 218.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 14c | 207.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 70c | 194.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 62c | 183.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…abf7backed Yes | 18c | 152.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 32c | 136.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…25ecbacked No | 27c | 135$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…4fd9backed Yes | 73c | 125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 105$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 29c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 71c | 104.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 75c | 102.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 22c | 101.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 23c | 99.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 39c | 86.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 75.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 72c | 70.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 76c | 65.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…3333backed No | 52c | 59.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 66c | 48.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 71c | 46.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 37c | 45.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…aa87backed Yes | 70c | 41.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 27c | 38.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…63edbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 72c | 26.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…4178backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…ca6abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.