Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b631ae7a746276fec914b6a154096c6c8bdb15dc6b1c96ff08f8c2b6c97c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,392$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 930$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 6c | 846.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.84 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 76c | 702.65$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 684.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 648.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.27 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390b…4354backed Yes | 13c | 616.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 5c | 612.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 39c | 530.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 5c | 465.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.03 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 65c | 446.08$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 434.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.76 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 37c | 410.54$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 393.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.57 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 78c | 365.01$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 4c | 299.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 52c | 189.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…feddbacked Yes | 16c | 185.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +201%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 149.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 70c | 138.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 21c | 136.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 10c | 135.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 23c | 127.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 20c | 126.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 69c | 114.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 70c | 80.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 25c | 74.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed No | 75c | 71.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 18c | 59.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 19c | 54.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…353cbacked Yes | 34c | 52.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…5998backed No | 69c | 44.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 78c | 30.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 54c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 65c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.