World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d5a0ab95ebba75fc05765b6eeb93060a840c78b289ee18572b10b94fa9fda8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 11c | 2,316$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.87 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,005$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 51c | 878.07$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…0dbcbacked Yes | 29c | 699.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 465.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 29c | 451.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 78c | 406.94$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 384.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Yes | 23c | 349.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked Yes | 28c | 343.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…0643backed Yes | 12c | 229.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…920cbacked Yes | 45c | 220.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 74c | 201.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 30c | 199.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes | 24c | 158.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked No | 52c | 158$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 8c | 152.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 150.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 13c | 130.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 58c | 130.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b9…ca00backed Yes | 39c | 126.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 120.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed Yes | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Yes | 13c | 107.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 20c | 98.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 78.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…1515backed Yes | 20c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…82b1backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 62.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…8c23backed Yes | 32c | 61.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 61.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 19c | 58.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…83e5backed Yes | 46c | 43.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 41.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 29.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 79c | 17.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be 60% or higher?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 58% and 60%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.