World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c875a2a0890aebafd5e46fbfd899f52cebfa036421bfba6709df4a4d41ab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a4…0697backed Yes | 14c | 1,531$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 80c | 755.45$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes | 21c | 753.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 349.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 7c | 315$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…d020backed Yes | 17c | 190.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 12c | 186.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 18c | 147.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…9a42backed Yes | 17c | 142.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9d…f4f7backed Yes | 19c | 137.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…6cfbbacked Yes | 19c | 131.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…cd0bbacked Yes | 16c | 123.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 122.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 10c | 117.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 50% and 52%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be 60% or higher?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 58% and 60%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.