Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x532c93957ff38cb6c58c9585dc46bd75784ee3aa0a43c401b137e691f102a546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 8,453$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 4,587$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 2c | 2,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 23c | 1,398$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 1,303$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 60c | 569.25$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 79c | 544.65$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 11c | 535.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…f8e4backed No | 35c | 455.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 64c | 435.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 66c | 338.38$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.33 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 60c | 256.52$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 43c | 251.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 74c | 238.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 58c | 195.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 61c | 162.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 159.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 150.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 54c | 149.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 142.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 32c | 123.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 115.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 106.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 64c | 102.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 59c | 99.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 72c | 99.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 64c | 97.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 55c | 96.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 48c | 89.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 59c | 89.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 71c | 87.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 62c | 80.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 74c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 50c | 69.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 32c | 66.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…0b2cbacked Yes | 57c | 63.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 57c | 57.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 57.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 55.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 67c | 52.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 67c | 50.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…81bdbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 49.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 45c | 46.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 53c | 39.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 67c | 32.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 62c | 31.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 68c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…960abacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…76e5backed Yes | 65c | 23.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…7175backed Yes | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 32°F or below on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or higher on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.