Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or higher on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943bf43bb5fce232a00f20b7e0f850b9a9393bdbfda1273f79c15f55aaf0399b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 21,449$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 17,639$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.85 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 11,667$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 4,481$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 3,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,323$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…c303backed Yes | 18c | 1,552$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,522$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 7c | 1,237$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…f8e4backed Yes | 37c | 1,152$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked No | 61c | 981$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 824.66$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.64 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 14c | 805.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 6c | 617.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 534.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 75c | 523.3$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 424.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 42c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 73c | 363.8$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 7c | 349.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 339.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 11c | 324.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 3c | 310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 305$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 7c | 304.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…5294backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…cb4bbacked Yes | 43c | 286.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked Yes | 14c | 281.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 277.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 19c | 249.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 28c | 241$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 29c | 229.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 22c | 209.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 41c | 205$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 7c | 203$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…78f8backed No | 55c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 70c | 162.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed Yes | 24c | 154.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 151.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 70c | 144.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 66c | 129.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 11c | 121.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 8c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 60c | 113.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 102.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 22c | 91.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 90.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…fdcdbacked Yes | 50c | 80.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 35c | 67.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 64.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 41c | 56.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 68c | 51.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed No | 78c | 49.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed No | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…7175backed Yes | 49c | 23.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…18d0backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…938ebacked No | 70c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or higher on December 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 32°F or below on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.