Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba078867bdeb861b8ecec2bbfe14d16917b53b57e842a0e333608cb8951c9038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 5c | 9,052$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,573.32 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 17c | 5,533$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608.28 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 31c | 2,967$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.28 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 2,915$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.23 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 2,219$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.34 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,163$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,022$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.06 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 40c | 1,821$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 1,659$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.94 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,342$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 4c | 999.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 4c | 803.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 7c | 766.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.56 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 5c | 517.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 66c | 425.51$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 405.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.59 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 344.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.5 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 11c | 321.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 4c | 300.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.09 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 24c | 276.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 7c | 274.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 186.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.68 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 145.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked No | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.