Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d86694a19e2b239c6fe16aa61b0de288d04346d2317eacd6c6454f5792a4e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf001…76c5backed Yes | 1c | 31,198$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,961$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 76c | 1,344$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 14c | 1,210$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked No | 71c | 1,168$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 73c | 773.68$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.93 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked No | 17c | 765.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 17c | 640$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 531.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 496.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.7 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 14c | 481.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 78c | 284.14$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 31c | 253$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 63c | 223.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 62c | 215.79$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 39c | 199.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 169.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.74 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 65c | 166.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 21c | 138.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…3333backed No | 17c | 132.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 129.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 79c | 125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 119.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 12c | 118.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 65c | 101.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 21c | 98.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 21c | 94.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 85.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed No | 54c | 84.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 83.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…af17backed No | 20c | 68.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked No | 17c | 63.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +350.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…10dfbacked Yes | 79c | 63.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 47c | 53.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 78c | 51.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked Yes | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 61c | 41.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed Yes | 71c | 28.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cb…4abfbacked Yes | 62c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 79c | 22.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…4b0dbacked Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 78c | 15.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.