Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba963947e7c2448f6ee84279e909662c4819e682ca1d6b679dc05e5c269efe32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,942$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 18c | 1,324$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 988.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 777.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 3c | 655.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…5d45backed Yes | 5c | 447.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 409.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 6c | 368.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 4c | 365.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 5c | 345.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…aea1backed Yes | 8c | 297.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 25c | 242.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 5c | 239$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 212.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 167.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 20c | 108.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.