Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78c807d2d6b018013288e892f46cf702d18ce8cd2740a7d565c6a5723745223b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c51…566abacked No | 0c | 2,297$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,630$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 63c | 1,100$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.62 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 7c | 1,071$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…79a6backed No | 57c | 1,067$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 35c | 1,052$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.71 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 43c | 590$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.91 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 35c | 417.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.09 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 30c | 407.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 12c | 371.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.31 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 65c | 312.96$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 269.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 15c | 169.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 34c | 166.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 32c | 158.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 41c | 155.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…4337backed Yes | 33c | 155.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed No | 75c | 153.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 146.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 25c | 139.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb561…0bf7backed Yes | 26c | 139$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…3157backed Yes | 30c | 138$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 134.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 129.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cbeabacked No | 74c | 129$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe18…85abbacked No | 70c | 123$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…76c5backed Yes | 21c | 121$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 43c | 118$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 66c | 107.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…314cbacked Yes | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 72c | 102.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…208bbacked No | 62c | 98.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 43c | 81.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 72c | 68.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 32c | 67.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 30c | 54.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 51.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…e7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…0de9backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…fc4bbacked Yes | 51c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…a01cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or higher on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.