Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaf77a4adc8aa494226ca161fdb0bd0214c89b2c742af05c0d129513e626bad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 64c | 3,302$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed No | 40c | 2,878$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.79 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…79a6backed Yes | 64c | 2,470$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…6828backed Yes | 61c | 2,256$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 64c | 1,955$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 33c | 1,535$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.1 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 36c | 922.18$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…716abacked No | 30c | 867$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 535$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 54c | 519.62$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 481.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 34c | 476.92$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.77 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 7c | 428$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 70c | 242.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Yes | 75c | 239.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 225.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 220$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 72c | 204.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 168$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…5f36backed No | 36c | 159$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…6bbebacked Yes | 64c | 153$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535a…58e8backed No | 35c | 146$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…3cc7backed No | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 71c | 141.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…8d5ebacked No | 35c | 137$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Yes | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…b1b0backed Yes | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…8837backed Yes | 65c | 131$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 130.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 72c | 105.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x880f…3cf5backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 58c | 99.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…208bbacked Yes | 65c | 99.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked No | 35c | 85.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 67c | 73.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 65c | 70.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 69c | 64.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 54.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…dd23backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 36c | 41.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 77c | 39.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 39c | 36.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d1…f2f6backed Yes | 66c | 34.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 67c | 34.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 40c | 29.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 61c | 27.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 43c | 25.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…7b58backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…5fe9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 74cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 56c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on December 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or higher on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on December 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.