IPO · resolved market
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cdf20785357ba7d2a41a11f786554947ec3d8e0d530c3acfc8d815292710c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 41c | 833.05$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.36 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 34c | 365.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 249.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…2179backed Yes | 27c | 220.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 215$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 177$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 138.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 136.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 72c | 109.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 22c | 98.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 74c | 78.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 76.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 46.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…94f4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…de1abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.5B and $2.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.75B and $3B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.