Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f301a6eed80333e59dce66fbd319663e3934c271f01be7a67dd0e2a8fa5343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 78c | 3,441$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.68 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 24c | 2,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ec97backed No | 2c | 1,081$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 558.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 14c | 550$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 16c | 394.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 39c | 335.76$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 75c | 324.94$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 62c | 295.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 42c | 284.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50d…4c07backed No | 49c | 255.6$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 36c | 248.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 71c | 242.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…b39abacked No | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…51ebbacked Yes | 53c | 198.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 50c | 168.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 50c | 161.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 143.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 60c | 94.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 59c | 91.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 82.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 28c | 82.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 22c | 70.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…324bbacked Yes | 63c | 65.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…9b09backed Yes | 41c | 48.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…c522backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 44.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 66c | 33.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…a70abacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.